| Rivals Plot Their
Super Bowl strategy
Posted 1/28/2004
By Michael Brush
By halftime, you may know more about
erectile dysfunction than you do about the Patriots. The
stakes in these commercial-break battles are huge, the costs
astronomical. We pick the winners.
When football fans settle in to watch the Carolina Panthers
take on the New England Patriots this Sunday in Super Bowl
XXXVIII, they’ll be witnessing intense rivalries among
top players. And in between the commercials where those rivalries
play out, sports fans will also be watching a football game.
The off-field rivalries extend far beyond the usual vying
for attention by advertisers, which will be paying $2.3 million
for 30 seconds on average.
Sports fans who also are astute investors will spot deeper
-- and more meaningful -- rivalries at work as well. Specifically,
they'll notice that top players in three intensely competitive
consumer markets this year are bringing their fights to the
Super Bowl airwaves. Here’s the other Super Bowl contests
you’ll see:
Contest #1: The battle of the “male enhancement”
drug. Rivals Eli Lilly (LLY, news, msgs), GlaxoSmithKline
(GSK, news, msgs) and Pfizer (PFE, news, msgs) will be duking
it out to win over fans for their Cialis, Levitra
and Viagra erectile dysfunction (ED) pills. Our pick:
Pfizer.
Contest #2: The battle for the moviegoer. This features the
titan Warner Bros., a division of Time Warner (TWX, news,
msgs), going up against Touchstone Pictures at Disney (DIS,
news, msgs), Universal Studios at Vivendi (V, news, msgs),
and Sony Pictures, a division of Sony Entertainment (SNE,
news, msgs). Our pick: Time Warner’s Warner Bros.
Contest #3: The battle of the automakers. Car maker General
Motors (GM, news, msgs) will continue to try to win over younger
drivers to its classic Cadillac brand, while DaimlerChrysler
(DCX, news, msgs) will pitch Dodge models and Mitsubishi Motors
(MMTOF, news, msgs) will advertise as well. Because of several
long-term challenges to the auto sector that none of these
players can escape, we predict this contest will go into an
overtime period that never ends.
Here’s how we picked our winners in these three parallel
Super Bowls playing out alongside the football action and
the five minutes worth of Budweiser ads.
'Male enhancement' drugs
If you think you’ve see enough “male enhancement”
ads in your e-mail to last you a lifetime, just wait until
you watch the Super Bowl this Sunday. No fewer than three
erectile dysfunction (ED) drug makers will by vying to increase
their market share with expensive ads during the big game.
They include relative upstarts to this particular market,
Eli Lilly and GlaxoSmithKline, which will be plugging Cialis
and Levitra. The third, of course, will be Pfizer, whose
well-known Viagra got the ball rolling on ED drugs a few years
back.
Who has the ED product with the most potential? We don’t
know from experience, but analysts at J.P. Morgan point out
that Cialis lasts the longest -- up to 36 hours -- and it
has the least risk for interacting badly with other things
that users eat or drink. Since rivals Cialis and Levitra
came on the market, though, growth in Viagra prescriptions
has remained strong -- recently coming in at about 300,000
per week.
Ultimately, however, heavy spending by the drug companies
to promote ED drugs may make them all winners because it will
simply increase the size of the market so much. “They
are going to get a lot of visibility, so I would expect the
market to grow, and they will all get their fair share,”
says Linda Miller, portfolio manager of the John Hancock Health
Sciences fund (JHGRX). An estimated 70 million men in North
America and Europe suffer from ED, but only 10% have sought
treatment, says Morningstar analyst Heather Brilliant.
Instead, to figure out which of these three major drug companies
will win the pharma Super Bowl ring, take a step back and
see who has the most potential in two key areas: drug development
pipeline and ability to cut costs. Here, Pfizer wins. “Lilly
has a pipeline, and Glaxo has cost cutting, but Pfizer has
it all, both cost cutting and a pipeline,” says Miller.
Pfizer is a top-10 holding of her fund. The fund also owns
a much smaller position in Lilly, but it doesn’t own
Glaxo.
As many as five potential blockbusters are rolling out of
the Pfizer pipeline right now, says J.P. Morgan analyst Roopesh
Patel, including Caduet and Inspra for heart problems and
hypertension, Pregabalin for epilepsy and anxiety disorder,
and Macugen for macular degeneration. He expects 20% earnings
growth this year, and he has a $45 price target on the stock.
“Glaxo is not pricey, but we don’t see the new
products,” says Miller. “Unless Lilly goes through
another round of consolidation, they don’t really have
more cost cutting right now.” As for Icos (ICOS, news,
msgs), which is teaming up with Eli Lilly in the launch of
Cialis, Hancock’s Miller thinks the high cost of promoting
the new ED drug will weigh on results for a while. “The
first year of a drug launch is risky and very expensive. These
are very expensive products to advertise,” she says.
Source : http://moneycentral.msn.com
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